The effects of choice context on decision-making: An application to voter fatigue.

摘要

This paper exploits a natural experiment in which choice fatigue is isolated as an explanation for the usage of heuristics in decision-making. The empirical application provides evidence that voters who see a given contest relatively further down the ballot are more likely to vote "no" and to abstain. Within-election exogenous variation in ballot position is primarily due to differences in the set of overlaying local political jurisdictions. My central finding is that lowering a proposition 10 positions on the ballot increases precinct-level "no" votes and undervotes by 1.3 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively. Interestingly, 8 of 124 statewide propositions in the dataset have winning margins within the range of the "no" estimate. The empirical analysis employs a unique precinct-level panel dataset of votes cast for the entire menu of federal, state & local ballot choices in primary and general elections between 1992 and 2006 in San Diego County, California. Implications of the results range from the dissemination of information by firms and policy makers to the design of electoral institutions and the strategic use of ballot propositions.