Microsimulating Residential Mobility and Location Choice Processes within an Integrated Land Use and Transportation Modelling System.

摘要

This research investigates motivational and procedural aspects of households’ long-term decisions of residential locations. The main goal of the research is to develop microbehavioural models of location processes in order to implement this critical land use component within a microsimulation-based model of Integrated Land Use, Transportation and Environment (ILUTE). The research takes a disaggregate and longitudinal approach to develop the models, which is consistent with the real-world decision-making process of households concerning their movements from one residence to another over time. It identifies two sequential model components to represent households’ relocation behaviour: (1) a model of household residential mobility that determines whether a household decides to become active in the housing market, and (2) a (re) location choice model. Both components are empirically investigated using retrospective surveys of housing careers. For the residential mobility decision, the research tests continuous-time hazard duration models and discrete-time panel logit models, and attempts to capture heterogeneity effects due to repeated choices within both modelling techniques. A discrete-time random parameter model is selected for implementation within ILUTE since it incorporates time-varying covariates. Assuming a sequential decision process, this mobility decision model is linked to the (re) location choice model that establishes preference orderings for each active household for a given set of dwelling units that it considers to relocate within the housing market. A unique feature of the (re) location model developed in this research is that it incorporates reference dependence that explicitly recognizes the role of the status quo and captures asymmetric responses towards gains and losses in making location choice decisions. The research then estimates an asking price model, which is used to generate base prices for active dwellings to interact with active households through a market clearing process within a microsimulation environment. A multilevel model that simultaneously accounts for both temporal and spatial heterogeneity is developed in this research using multi-period property transaction data. Finally, this research simulates evolution of households’ location choices for a twenty-year period (1986-2006) and compares the results against observed location patterns.