'Dynamics of wars of extermination: A theory' Why exogenously weakened states kill internally, while endogenously weakened states kill externally.

摘要

This dissertation will respond to two simple but momentous questions: (1) Why do wars of extermination (WOE; wars with high casualties) occur---what are their causes? and (2) How can they be prevented or reduced? Answering the second question is the goal of this dissertation.;Two kinds of WOE are discussed: (1) inter-state WOE between states (thus external to the states); and (2) intra-state WOE occurring within a state (thus internal to the state). The research is based on data from 1945--2004, inclusive.;For a political entity---usually a "state" in the present global political system---endogenous pressure leads to external war of extermination (inter-state WOE), while exogenous pressure results in internal war of extermination (intra-state WOE). In other words, a state that undergoes endogenous pressure, such as a military coup or some other sort of radical political change, tends to cause a war of extermination directed externally, toward other states. On the other hand, a state that experiences exogenous pressure, such as foreign invasion or occupation, tends to fall into an internal war of extermination, such as a large scale civil war or genocide.;In this dissertation I introduce a theory that explains the dynamics of wars of extermination: intense exogenous pressures such as foreign invasions or occupations, and intense endogenous pressures such as severe and sudden internal political changes or internal conflicts tend to weaken the institutional base of the state, resulting in intense violence. First, the weak institution itself tends to rely on violence. The government with a weak institutional base has a high propensity to use extreme violence in order to strengthen its institutional foundation. Secondly, the weak institution often becomes the victim or subject of violence. The government with a weak institutional base is challenged by people who see its institutional weakness and take the opportunity to attempt to climb into power, thus pushing the state into a war of extermination. This research also focuses on the question of why external pressure leads to internal rather than external WOE, and why internal pressure leads to external rather than internal WOE.;Based on the understanding of the dynamics of WOE offered by the theory developed here, the dissertation suggests ways to work toward eliminating wars of extermination. As a short-term solution, this research suggests (1) comprehensive illegalization of the causes of wars of extermination; i.e., invasion, occupation, external coup; (2) preventive deployment; and (3) extension of reparations for past colonization to post colonial war damages and mutual economic development and integration between former colonies and colonizers. For a long-term solution, it suggests (1) universal and compulsory peace education; (2) international cooperation to stabilize weak states; and (3) moving to a cosmopolitan world order and the eventual illegalization of internal coups.