Longitudinal distribution of homicide in the city of San Antonio, TX: Trends, patterns and theory.

摘要

Homicide is one of the best indicators of violence. Homicide, like other forms of physical violence, tends to cluster in hotspots within urban areas. This thesis is a case study of the homicide patterns in San Antonio, TX. The purpose is to identify trends, patterns, and theoretical explanations that may account for these patterns. Some of the factors analyzed are: social and economic determinants, demographics, and multiple characteristics disadvantaged and deprived neighborhoods. Longitudinal data on San Antonio homicides and social factors compiled by Dr. Michael Gilbert for the period from 1988 to 2002 will provide a foundation for this project. The method of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) multiple regression was used during the analysis. Findings indicated a consistent correlation between the level of multiple deprivations experienced in disadvantaged census tracts and homicides. As anticipated, economic disadvantages were significantly more important as a single predictor of violence. However, residential instability or variables used to measure family disruption, did not produce an important effect on homicide rates.