The Crime-Terror Nexus: Improvised Explosive Device Illicit Supply Intermediation

摘要

This dissertation explored how illicit supply chain intermediation functions as the underlying infrastructure of buyer-seller exchanges of IED and related components; and how state and non-state actors, witting and unwitting entities converge into a criminal and terrorist nexus that employs these devices in support of parallel and divergent violent activities.;My interest in illicit intermediation stems from over 10 years of experience as a counter-IED analyst observing disjointed and mostly ineffective counter-intermediation efforts by governments and law enforcement. This analysis is based on my belief that by identifying the junctions between money, geography, transfer of IED materials, social networks, and state and non-state actors, the global threat networks employing IEDs can be disrupted.;Using a mixed methods research design, why intermediaries exist, how they operate, and the ways they influence the illicit supply chain were explored. Both qualitative and quantitative data were used to provide a holistic understanding of the research problem. The research design also encompassed a systems approach, supply chain intermediation analysis, and social network analysis. Together, these methodologies identified causal relationships and discerned patterns observed in the structure, organization, operations, and flow of information between intermediaries and their networks; and identified key systemic leverage points within the network structures that can potentially be influenced. The well-planned and orchestrated attack by the terrorist group, Lashkar-e Tayyiba on Mumbai, India in 2008 was used to frame the issue of illicit intermediation and the nexus between crime and terrorism, as well as to give context to the analysis used in this study.;Due to the complex nature of the subject, a scarcity of primary sources was a key limitation in this research. Instead, secondary data from journals, periodicals, academic work, etc. were used. These were validated through corroborating measures, and data were discarded or an explanation was provided where differences occurred.;Research results identified key systemic leverage points and vulnerabilities that can potentially destabilize an illicit intermediated supply chain network by influencing the linear interdependence between the intermediary, and the supplier and buyer. The expected contribution of this analysis is to identify counter-intermediation options designed for a layered approach consisting of the private, public, and civic sectors of society, and addressing structural and governance-related issues that may go far in diminishing, and perhaps defeating the power and influence of these illicit supply chain actors.