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Essays on Information Sharing in Supply Chains.

机译:供应链信息共享随笔。

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A significant part of supply chain management research has been devoted to understanding the role of information sharing in achieving the best performance. The modern technology, especially the internet, is creating new channels that facilitate interactions and communications between different parties in supply chains. Motivated by various companies that share information with their buyer and suppliers, we study the value of information sharing in supply chains.;The dissertation consists of three self-contained papers. Motivated by our interaction with a leading consumer packaged goods company in the beverage industry, in Chapter 1, we provide an empirical and theoretical assessment of the value of information sharing in a two-stage supply chain. The value of downstream sales information to the upstream firm stems from improving upstream order fulfillment forecast accuracy. Such an improvement can lead to lower safety stock and better service. Based on the data collected from the CPG company, we empirically show that, if the company includes the downstream sales data to forecast orders, the improvement in the mean squared forecast error ranges from 7.1% to 81.1% across all studied products. Theoretical models in the literature, however, suggest that the value of information sharing should be zero for over half of our studied products. To reconcile the gap between the literature and the empirical observations, we develop a new theoretical model. While the literature assumes that the decision maker strictly adheres to a given inventory policy, our model allows him to deviate, accounting for private information held by the decision maker, yet unobservable to the econometrician. This turns out to reconcile our empirical findings with the literature. These "decision deviations" lead to information losses in the order process, resulting in a strictly positive value of downstream information sharing. Furthermore, we empirically quantify and show the significance of the value of knowing the downstream replenishment policy.;Sellers could use operations information disclosure to affect consumer behavior and benefit the sellers. Chapter 2 studies the inventory information sharing behavior of a firm that sells vertically differentiated products. The seller credibly and discretionarily discloses inventory information to customers either fully or partially, i.e., disclosing only the aggregate inventory level. In the disclosure literature, discretion usually leads to the unraveling results: full disclosure is the equilibrium even when it is not optimal for the seller. Instead, this paper shows that aggregate inventory disclosure can sustain as an ex post equilibrium, which is also ex ante optimal for the seller. We explore when and why it is optimal to do so.;Chapter 3 studies an inventory replenishment policy that attempts to keep a constant amount of days of inventory, which we refer to as ConDOI policy. This practice is widely used in practice, including the CPG company that we worked with and from which we receive the data set in our first paper. This policy is easy to implement and free from heavy computational burdens, because it requires only one parameter (targeted days of inventory) to manage inventory. While its performance is equivalent to that of a constant base stock policy under stationary demand, its most attractive feature is the adaptability to a non-stationary (e.g. seasonal) environment. In this paper, we consider a dynamic forecast-inventory model with forecast updates under the MMFE demand.;Customers participate in the discussions of companies' products and services. Customers' voice is embedded in the social media content. Chapter 4 empirically explores how much social media information helps improve sales forecasting. Using (1) daily sales data from an online apparel startup company that primarily advertises on Facebook, and (2) publicly available Facebook posts and the users' comments and likes data, we find a statistically significant improvement in sales forecast accuracy. We analyze the underlying mechanism---the endorsement effect and the attention effect. We show that sales from new customers are driven by the endorsement effect and sales from repeated customers are driven by the attention effect. Since new customers have never purchased the product before, they are less familiar with the products and thus have difficulties evaluating the quality of products. Attention might not be enough to drive sales. A purchasing decision of a new customer might rely on the endorsement from established social relationships. On the other hand, repeated customers who already have purchasing experience are less likely to learn the product quality from others. A reminder of the brand's promotions or simply the brand's name might lead to a potential purchase from repeated customers. (Abstract shortened by UMI.).
机译:供应链管理研究的重要部分致力于理解信息共享在实现最佳绩效中的作用。现代技术,特别是互联网,正在创造新的渠道,促进供应链中不同各方之间的互动和交流。受与购买者和供应商共享信息的各种公司的激励,我们研究了信息共享在供应链中的价值。论文包括三篇自成体系的论文。在第一章中,由于我们与饮料行业领先的消费品包装公司的互动,我们对两阶段供应链中信息共享的价值进行了实证和理论评估。对上游公司的下游销售信息的价值源于上游订单履行预测准确性的提高。这样的改进可以导致较低的安全库存和更好的服务。根据从CPG公司收集的数据,我们凭经验表明,如果公司将下游销售数据包括在预测订单中,则所有研究产品的平均预测误差均方根改善范围为7.1%至81.1%。然而,文献中的理论模型表明,对于我们研究的产品的一半以上,信息共享的价值应为零。为了调和文献与实证观察之间的差距,我们建立了一个新的理论模型。虽然文献假设决策者严格遵守给定的库存政策,但我们的模型允许他偏离决策者,以考虑决策者拥有的私人信息,而计量经济学家却无法观察到。事实证明,我们的经验发现与文献一致。这些“决策偏差”会导致订单过程中的信息丢失,从而导致下游信息共享的严格正值。此外,我们通过经验量化并显示了了解下游补货政策的价值的重要性。卖方可以使用运营信息披露来影响消费者的行为并从中受益。第2章研究了销售纵向差异化产品的公司的库存信息共享行为。卖方可信地和酌情地将库存信息全部或部分地透露给客户,即仅公开总库存水平。在公开文献中,谨慎通常会导致混乱的结果:完全公开是均衡的,即使对卖方而言并非最佳。相反,本文表明,总库存披露可以维持事前均衡,这对于卖方而言也是事前最佳的。我们探究了这样做的最佳时机和原因。第三章研究了一种库存补给策略,该策略试图保持一定天数的库存,我们将其称为ConDOI策略。这种做法在实践中得到了广泛使用,包括与我们合作过的CPG公司,并从中获得了第一篇论文中的数据集。该策略易于实施,并且没有繁重的计算负担,因为它只需要一个参数(目标库存天数)即可管理库存。尽管其性能与固定需求下恒定基础库存策略的性能相当,但其最吸引人的特征是对非固定(例如季节性)环境的适应性。在本文中,我们考虑了MMFE需求下具有预测更新的动态预测库存模型。客户参与了公司产品和服务的讨论。客户的声音被嵌入社交媒体内容中。第4章从经验上探讨了社交媒体信息在多大程度上有助于改善销售预测。使用(1)来自主要在Facebook上做广告的在线服装创业公司的每日销售数据,以及(2)公开可用的Facebook帖子以及用户的评论和喜欢的数据,我们发现销售预测准确性在统计上有显着提高。我们分析了潜在的机制-代言效应和注意力效应。我们表明,新客户的销售受背书效应驱动,而回头客的销售受关注效应驱动。由于新客户以前从未购买过该产品,因此他们对产品不太熟悉,因此难以评估产品的质量。注意可能不足以推动销售。新客户的购买决定可能取决于已建立的社会关系的认可。另一方面,已经有购买经验的回头客不太可能从他人那里学习产品质量。提醒品牌促销或仅使用品牌名称可能会导致潜在顾客回头客。 (摘要由UMI缩短。)。

著录项

  • 作者

    Cui, Ruomeng.;

  • 作者单位

    Northwestern University.;

  • 授予单位 Northwestern University.;
  • 学科 Operations research.;Web studies.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2014
  • 页码 224 p.
  • 总页数 224
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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