News or Not? Local News Coverage and Voter Opinion in Presidential Primaries.

摘要

Voting in presidential primaries, compared to general elections, provides a challenging task for voters given the lack of party cues, the similarity of the candidates' policy positions, and the relatively low information levels. As trustworthy sources of local information, local news media in presidential primaries have a profound potential to shape voters' evaluations of candidates. I argue that the proximity of local news, its local nature, makes it a trusted and influential source of candidate information, moderated by candidates' prominence. Furthermore, variation in local news across states as a result of differences in standards of newsworthiness and organizational resources helps clarify the distinct role that local news plays in voter opinion of presidential primary candidates. Relying on an original content analysis of news coverage in 11 battleground and early primary states, and utilizing an extensive panel survey of 5,301 respondents over the course of the 2008 primary campaign, I am able to match primary voters with their local news content. I examine the influence of the quantity and tone of local news coverage on voters' evaluations of presidential candidates over the course of the primary season. The findings suggest that local news outlets provide voters with vastly different amounts and types of campaign news. I find that the amount of local news coverage influences people's willingness to evaluate presidential candidates. In addition, evaluations of low tier presidential candidates are significantly influenced by the tone of local news coverage, even after controlling for voters' ideological predispositions and local candidate activities. These findings suggest that local news coverage has a powerful effect on voters' evaluations of low tier candidates in particular, consistently shaping voters' recognition and evaluations of these candidates. The availability and bias of candidate information in presidential primaries may ultimately impact electoral outcomes in both nominating contests and general elections.