Political futures of small-scale island-states in Pacific islands: Global dynamics and state-making in the Republic of Palau.

摘要

The Republic of Palau has experienced a series of social changes in the course of the processes of colonization, decolonization, and the contemporary exposure to various global forces in the form of foreign investment, aid, guest workers, and international tourism. What sustains Palau's economy as well as the revenue base for the government are financial arrangements provided by the United States of America, aid projects from other donor governments, foreign investments, and other sources of income that originate mainly from outside of Palau. In short, a significant portion of Palau's livelihood and survivability are secured through external sources of income. Indeed this structure of Palau's government and its national economy can only be sustained as long as those foreign actors continue to invest capital in Palau, but if the scale of such activities were to shrink, Palau's economic and political situation would deteriorate. Considering that small-scale island-states are quite vulnerable to begin with, and that indigenous means of production and locally sustainable lifestyles have weakened, such a change might lead to a "collapse" phase. With these factors in mind, this dissertation critically analyzes Palau's contemporary situation and introduces Palauans' public opinion regarding their futures, and explores possible future strategies of state-making for Palau. To do so, this study employs the deductive forecasting method drawn from the field of Futures Studies, and suggests alternative futures scenarios for Palau. The main argument of this dissertation is that Palau should employ major elements in the Disciplined Society model to strengthen the national foundation at the same time it seeks the element of Continued Growth with more autonomous way. At the same time, Palau should also consider further future possibility from the perspective of Transformational Society model.