Assessing the Impact of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) on Canada's Transportation System

摘要

Canada signed the Canada-European Union (EU) Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) in October 2016 which was later ratified by the European Parliament in February 2017. This agreement enables Canadian establishments to trade openly with EU members. Despite the Canadian government's economical analysis, no study has been undertaken to investigate the impact of CETA on Canada's transportation network. The objective of this thesis is to assess the impact of CETA on the transportation network by estimating origin-destination trade flows, mode shares, and transportation flows before and after the agreement. Annual provincial commodity flows are obtained from a Computable General Equilibrium model. Mode shares are determined based on US commodity flow survey data. The model results indicate an increase in freight movement along Eastern Canada and a decrease in trade movement near the US-Canada borders and Western Canada. Accuracy of the results are examined for the road and rail modes.