Three essays on the effect of uncertainty on resource markets.

摘要

This thesis conducts three econometric studies into the effects of resource price uncertainty.;The second chapter finds empirical evidence that it can be rational for resource extracting firms to accept an expected growth rate of resource prices below the rate of interest if the commodity is storable and delivery of output occurs with a lag.;The final chapter finds empirical evidence that uncertainty in oil prices has an effect on the relationship between oil price growth and U.S. GDP growth. It is found that oil price increases only have a major effect on the macroeconomy when they exceed a threshold level, which is strictly increasing in the degree of oil price uncertainty (i.e., the variance).;The first chapter finds empirical evidence of a risk premium increasing the expected return of holding units of non-renewable resource, suggesting that the presence of uncertainty accelerates extraction of non-renewable resources.