Climate and Environmental Drivers of Dengue Seasonality in Rural Ecuador

摘要

Dengue fever is a major burden globally, and in many locations, exhibits strong spatiotemporal pattern. Much of the spatial distribution and seasonality of dengue is driven by climate and its impacts on both the mosquito vectors and human hosts. There is very little research on dengue in Ecuador, and most studies of the association between dengue and climate has focused on large-scale patterns of disease. With this research we determined the seasonality of dengue fever and the role of climate variables on seasonality in a rural community in Ecuador, using medical records for patients diagnosed with dengue fever from 2009--2016 and climate data from a ground-based station. In addition, we examined small-scale relationships between mosquitoes and climate by determining the relationship of environmental and microclimate variables to mosquito and female Aedes aegypti abundance, using mosquito trap data and logged microclimate data. We also assessed the effect of environment on microclimate, and the temporal stability of microclimates. With this information, we used statistical learning methods to combine environmental data and climate data from ground-based stations and satellites to predict microclimate variables for each month in this community, at high spatial resolution.