Increased precipitation variation: Management implications for cattle production in Southeast Wyoming.

摘要

Weather affects cattle production through the health, well-being, and performance of pastureland, rangeland, and cattle, and any increased variation should be a concern for cattle producers. A multi-period linear programming (MLP) model is used to identify livestock management activities that maximize the present value of net returns over a multi-year planning horizon, given variation in prices and weather conditions in Southeast Wyoming. Historical data from the USDA-ARS High Plains Grasslands Research Station is used to estimate the impacts of growing season precipitation variation on livestock performance indirectly through impacts on forage production and directly through impacts on calf gain. The MLP model incorporates these relationships over a suite of precipitation forecasts and potential financial management decisions in order to determine the impact of precipitation changes on the viability of cattle producers in the region. Results indicate that precipitation variation negatively impacts profitability of cattle enterprises with dry years having larger negative impacts than positive impacts associated with wet years. Models based on static weather tend to over-estimate profitability when compared to models that include historical precipitation variation. In addition, sources of supplemental funds impact both the risk associated with profit variability and the responsiveness of profitability to precipitation and cattle price cycles.