Existing transportation planning models are briefly reviewed, with emphasis given to trip generation models. The methodology of System Dynamics and its application in the field of transportation planning are presented.; Using the System Dynamics methodology a model of trip generation forcasting is developed. The model is structured around an Area Component and a Travel Component. The Area Component includes population and land use subcomponents. The population subcomponent is comprised of four elements: population, labor, job and income. The land use subcomponent is comprised of seven elements: houses, industries, businesses, transportation land, public land, urban area land and land fraction occupied. The Travel Component includes pollution, fuel consumption and trip rate subcomponents. The principal feature of the model is the inclusion of causative variables in the trip generation process. Some of these variables are energy-related.; The DYNAMO simulation language was used in model development. Although the model can be used in any urban area, in this study it is calibrated for Gadsden, Alabama. Analysis of the simulation results are used to test the model for sensitivity toward different policies and parameters. The sensitivity of the model toward pollution and annexation policies was tested. Parameter sensitivity tests assure that the model behaves realistically in response to the essential features of the real system. The sensitivity of the model toward gasoline cost per gallon was tested.; The results support the development of a methodology that can improve the trip generation phase of transportation planning. Guidelines and recommendations for model application are presented.
展开▼
