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AN ECONOMETRIC STUDY OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY OF GASOLINE: DISEQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS.

机译:汽油需求和供给的计量经济学:不平衡分析。

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摘要

The aims of this research are to formulate an energy model to examine the current energy situations and to explore the empirical acceptability of the model. More specifically, this study intends to develop an analytical framework for the U.S. gasoline market during the period 1960 to 1979.;In the empirical analysis, the assumption of disequilibrium gasoline market is tested to see whether the disequilibrium hypothesis is acceptable or not. Both two-stage-least-squares (2SLS) and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) methods are used for estimating the model. In MLE the maximization of the likelihood function requires the use of a nonlinear maximization algorithm that can be used with a number of initial starting values for the parameters to ensure that a maximum has been reached. The techniques used in this study are the quadratic hill-climbing algorithm developed by Goldfeld and Quandt and the pattern search method by Davidon-Fletcher-Powell. It is empirically found that the hypothesis of a disequilibrium gasoline market during the 1960-1979 period is supported against the hypothesis of equilibrium.;Throughout the last two decades the U.S. gasoline market was in disequilibrium because of either imperfect price adjustment (in most of the 1960s and some periods in the 1970s) or price control by government (in some periods in the 1970s). Especially in the 1970s when the price controls were effective, it is theoretically found that the regulations were binding for some firms and nonbinding for the others depending upon each refining firm's accessibility to price controlled old (cheap) oil and base period profit margin. This has been resulted since the regulations were firm-specific. Three major policy changes--the Emergency Petroleum Allocation Act (EPAA), the Entitlement Program, and the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA)--are also surveyed based on the model developed.
机译:这项研究的目的是建立一个能源模型,以检查当前的能源状况,并探索该模型的经验可接受性。更具体地说,本研究旨在为1960年至1979年期间的美国汽油市场建立一个分析框架;在实证分析中,对不平衡汽油市场的假设进行了检验,以查看不平衡假设是否可以接受。两阶段最小二乘(2SLS)和最大似然估计(MLE)方法都用于估计模型。在MLE中,似然函数的最大化需要使用非线性最大化算法,该算法可以与参数的多个初始起始值一起使用,以确保达到最大值。本研究中使用的技术是Goldfeld和Quandt开发的二次爬山算法以及Davidon-Fletcher-Powell的模式搜索方法。从经验上可以发现,1960-1979年间汽油市场不平衡的假设与平衡假设相抵触。在过去的二十年中,由于价格调整不完善(在大多数情况下,美国汽油市场处于不平衡状态) 1960年代和1970年代的某些时期)或政府控制价格(在1970年代的某些时期)。尤其是在1970年代,当价格管制生效时,从理论上讲,该法规对某些公司具有约束力,而对另一些公司则不具有约束力,这取决于每个精炼公司对价格控制的旧(廉价)石油的可及性和基准期的利润率。这是因为法规是针对特定公司的。根据开发的模型,还调查了三项主要的政策变更-紧急石油分配法(EPAA),权利计划和能源政策与保护法(EPCA)。

著录项

  • 作者

    YANG, BONG-MIN.;

  • 作者单位

    The Pennsylvania State University.;

  • 授予单位 The Pennsylvania State University.;
  • 学科 Economics General.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1982
  • 页码 183 p.
  • 总页数 183
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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