SIMPLIFIED URBAN TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCEDURES USING CENSUS DATA.

摘要

Effective urban transportation planning demands the examination of the widest possible range of imaginative alternative solutions to the problems faced (e.g., congestion, energy conservation, etc.). The time and cost associated with calibrating and exercising conventional urban transportation planning models rule out their use for all but the detailed analysis of a select list of the most promising alternatives. A set of simplified procedures is required, therefore, to efficiently reduce the full spectrum of options to some sub-set warranting further investigation. This dissertation develops such simplified planning procedures.;The problem of simplifying the urban transportation planning process is approached in a number of ways: (1) The aggregation of traffic zones into a few large planning zones where these "superzones" define the major ring and radial travel corridors of the urban area. (2) The use of published data sources, particularly Statistics Canada's Labour Force and 1971 census data, to reduce the need for costly and time-consuming data collection. (3) The use of behaviourally based disaggregate modal split models to factor the peak-hour, interzonal trip tables by mode. (4) The development of transferable demand models to eliminate the need for laborious model recalibration with each new application. (5) The development of simple, parametric, non-network supply models that convert measures of transportation supply (e.g., bus miles of service per square mile) in each major travel corridor into the inputs required by the modal split models (e.g., out-of-vehicle travel time) and into certain direct measures of transportation system performance (e.g., mean speed) of interest to decision makers. (6) The development of a simple and efficient modal split model aggregation procedure, which yields unbiased estimates of the corridor-level modal splits.;The dissertation concludes with the application of the full set of simplified procedures to the analysis of a range of topical planning problems. These examples demonstrate that the simplified procedures are sufficiently policy sensitive to permit the preliminary evaluation of a wide range of alternatives, yet require only a fraction of the time and cost required to calibrate and exercise conventional planning models.