A RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCE MODEL TO SATISFY BASIC NEEDS IN THIRD WORLD COUNTRIES - A CASE STUDY OF EL SALVADOR.

摘要

A computerized energy model has been designed to estimate the energy resources required by a country of the third world to satisfy the food and housing needs of the population as well as to maintain a certain degree of transportation and industry. The model has been designed to analyze the energy situation of El Salvador, however, minor modifications in the model structure could make the model suitable to be used for other countries of the third world.; A system Dynamics population submodel generates different scenarios of population data which serve as the independent variables to calculate the demand of resources. Housing needs are estimated from present deficits and future population growth. Food needs are evaluated from biological considerations. The energy resources to build the houses and cultivate the food are calculated by assuming different housing construction techniques and cultivation practices.; The energy resources required to maintain adequate levels of transportation and industry are evaluated. This is done by extrapolating past consumption patterns, with the feature that future fuel consumption estimations assume a gradual incorporation of the lower economic groups in addition to the current consumption levels attributed to the upper social groups.; The technological requirements to meet the energy demand with renewable energy resources are evaluated by assuming an energy policy heavily oriented to utilize solar radiation and other renewable resources. Ten small scale decentralized and two large scale centralized technologies are considered in the satisfaction of energy needs in El Salvador.; The final energy demand to satisfy the basic needs of the population of El Salvador is expressed in terms of the requirements of fertile and non-fertile land, the number of the different technologies, human and animal requirements and the demand of other energy related resources such as materials, non-metals and so on.; A sensitivity analysis is carried out, to determine the effect on fertile land demanded as a result of technical and policy changes and also the changes in the assumed behavior of the variables. An energy policy program for El Salvador is suggested.