AN INTERSECTORAL MODEL OF PLANNING FOR THE BRAZILIAN ECONOMY: AN APPLICATION OF OPTIMAL CONTROL THEORY (INPUT-OUTPUT, BRAZIL).

摘要

The main problem analyzed in this study is the one of determining, for the Brazilian economy, the strategy that maximizes total employment given a restriction in the Balance of Payments.;Given an economic scenario characterized by high levels of unemployment and underemployment in the country, as well as an important limitation in the country's capacity to import, the results obtained in this study could be used in the elaboration of an economic plan designed to provide guidelines for the Brazilian public sector in the near future.;These results show that Services is the strategic sector in the Brazilian economy, that is, given the Balance of Payments restriction, an increase in the final demand for the output of the service sector causes the greatest total (i.e., direct and indirect) effects in employment generation. Particularly, these effects caused by an expansion of the service sector are greater than those corresponding to Construction and to the capital goods sectors.;In order to solve such a problem, an intersectoral dynamic model is used. In this model, the total output of each sector of the economy is related to increases in the final demand of the Brazilian public sector, that is, of the Government and State enterprises.