LINKAGE EFFECT UNDER DIFFERENT CHANNELS AND SOURCES OF TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER TO THE LDC'S - AUTO INDUSTRY AS A CASE STUDY.

摘要

The aim of this study is to evaluate different channels and sources of technology transfer to the developing countries, using the linkage effect as a basic criterion. In order to achieve this goal, we need to answer three questions: which sources and channels of technology transfer are more capable of generating linkages?, what are the factors that can affect the linkage behavior?, and how effective are the linkages generated under the use of different channels, with respect to some basic issues: who benefits basically from the linkages?, how costly are these linkages?, and to what extent do the high domestic linkages loosen foreign exchange constraint?; The auto industry of seven developing countries: Argentina, Brazil, India, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, and Philippines, is the focus of this study.; The study has shown that, in the shorter run (first 15 years), foreign direct investment (FDI) is more capable of generating backward linkages in the auto industry than the license agreements, other things being equal. However, in the long run, it is possible for the license-oriented group to achieve high levels of linkages, the same way as the FDI-oriented group. But this is possible only for the newly industrialized countries.; But how effective were these linkages? While FDI was more effective in reducing the technological dualism among the domestic sectors and in increasing the stability of the export earnings, through increasing the domestic linkages, it was less effective in improving income distribution among individuals, and in reducing dependency. On the other hand, while the license agreements were more effective in improving income distribution among individuals and in reducing dependency, through increasing the domestic linkages, they were less capable of reducing technological dualism and of increasing stability of the export earnings.; Concerning the sources of technology transfer, it was evident that the linkages generated under the Japanese pattern of auto production were stronger, deeper, more stable, and more efficient than those generated under the American pattern.; Finally, the study has shown that the government policy was one of the important factors that affected the level of linkages besides the nature of the transferred technology.