CHANGE, ASSESSMENT AND ADAPTATION: BRITAIN AND THE EXPERIENCE OF RELATIVE DECLINE, 1895-1905 (BRITISH EMPIRE, TARIFF REFORM, POWER, INDIA, SEA POWER).

摘要

How do statesmen think about power and, in particular, how do they seek to measure the relative power of the nations they lead? How do they become aware of changes (especially unfavorable ones) in the relative power of their own country? How do they think about and seek to adapt to such changes? These are questions of considerable theoretical and practical significance, yet they are generally little studied and poorly understood.;The British example suggests the importance to statesmen of simple, compact indicators of national power. These indicators may have long, complex bureaucratic and intellectual histories and they are clearly essential in facilitating debate and decision-making. But their presence, authority and widespread acceptance can help to inhibit recognition of significant shifts in a state's relative position. Even major crises (like the Boer War of 1899-1902) may not be sufficient to force changes in thinking or policy. At least initially, therefore, adaptation to changes in relative national power are likely to be partial, incomplete and uncoordinated.;This dissertation seeks to shed light on the process of self-assessment by examining four parallel debates over national power that went on inside the British government between 1895 and 1905. At the turn of the twentieth century British statesmen began to argue about whether their country was entering into a period of relative decline. They were especially worried that England was being displaced as the world's leading economic power, that she was reaching the limits of her financial resources, losing her traditional worldwide naval supremacy and facing new and unprecedented threats to the limited capabilities of her small, volunteer army. Drawing on the many collections of personal and state papers now available it is possible to assemble a detailed picture of how both optimists and pessimists on these questions thought, how and why they differed, and how their deliberations shaped the policies which Britain pursued in the opening years of the new century.