Dynamic modelling and pricing strategy evaluation in intercity air travel.

摘要

Modelling intercity air transportation demand, supply and performance characteristics is the subject of this research. Time-Series analysis is used to develop a set of demand and supply models for a given non-stop air travel route. A number of statistical tests are used to select the appropriate model variables. The proportions of passengers paying full-fare and economy fare are determined from a Choice Model which includes several level-of-service variables. Using the above models, the total profit over a given period of time is expressed as a function of fares. Constraints on Fares and Load Factors are identified and the optimum values of fares for which the profit function is maximum, is determined. Performance of the airline on this travel route is evaluated continuously for each pricing strategy. The study presents a number of fare-pricing options for a Twin-Cities based airline, operating under a number of different conditions. The effect of changing aircraft fuel prices and level-of-service variables (such as Passenger Waiting time and Restrictions attached to the fare plan) is investigated and reported.