Citation analysis and emerging technologies: Foundational technical developments in optical disk technology.

摘要

One reason a given technology emerges is that the technical means of the technology are improved--made more efficient, faster, more reliable. This causes changes in the "socio-technical interface" between the technical means and the organization in which it is applied, and it becomes practical to use the improved technical means in new applications and additional organizations.;Technical developments that decisively affect the technical workability and the economic usefulness of a product or process, which permit rapid changes in a technology and its rate of emergence, are termed foundational technical developments (FTDs).;We often want to be able to identify which technical developments contribute to an emerging technology. The problem of this study was to determine the utility of citation analysis in identifying FTDs and core literatures associated with FTDs. Citation analysis is an unobtrusive and non-reactive bibliometric technique. Moreover, citation data in scientific and technical literature are accessible in the Science Citation Index.;This dissertation used FTDs in optical disks (e.g., CD-ROM, digital videodisks) to study the utility of citation analysis in emerging technologies.;A panel of experts in a three-round Delphi study identified FTDs in optical disks. Two sets of articles were identified: one group pertained to optical disks and one or more FTD; the other to optical disks but not to FTDs.;Citation counts confirmed that FTD articles were cited significantly more frequently than non-FTD articles. The citation behavior replicated the judgement of the Delphi panel in identifying FTDs. The data were tested using both a t-test and the Wilcoxon rank sum test. The analysis of the data also indicated that the core literature identified by citation patterns was different than the core literature identified by the number of articles published. Frequency of citation can be used to identify FTDs and the core literature associated with FTDs in emerging technologies.