Migration, urbanization and regional policy in Peru: An economic analysis.

摘要

This dissertation examines several key issues in economic development. The primary foci are the causes of urbanization, the desirability of continued urban growth, and policies designed to influence the spatial distribution of population.;Chapter I is devoted to a survey of the existing literature on migration and urbanization in Peru. The results of previous analyses are summarized, and the major gaps in knowledge are identified. It is shown that previous analyses of migration's causes and consequences were either incomplete or flawed methodologically, or both. Theoretical issues in the measurement of negative externalities associated with continued urbanization are addressed in detail. The heart of Chapter II is the calculation of the benefits and costs of recent migration flows to Lima. Recent migration flaws are seen to have increased production in Lima substantially more than they have decreased production in source regions. Even when the negative externalities--such as pollution and congestion--caused by migrants are accounted for, the net benefits of migration far outweigh its costs.;Attention is turned in Chapter III to two of the policies used by Peruvian governments to promote regional development. The first part of the chapter is a brief history of decentralization efforts, but most such efforts are seen to be more form than substance. The second half of the chapter uses ARIMA models to investigate whether the regional location of public investment spending has changed over the past twenty years. Chapter IV continues the analysis of region development policies. Tax incentives given to private firms to locate in non-central regions are analyzed. A simultaneous system of labor demand and supply equations is estimated, and the effects of the tax incentives are gauged. These incentives are seen to have had little or no effect on the hiring decisions of firms.