Family planning and fertility transition in Shifang County, Sichuan, People's Republic of China.

摘要

In this dissertation the author systematically introduces one of the Chinese model examples of the family planning program in Shifang County, Sichuan, People's Republic of China. The process and characteristics of the County's fertility transition, as well as other related topics, such as the preference for children and the rapid aging of the County population in the future, were discussed. Focus was placed on exploring the determinants of fertility at both macro and micro levels. The data used is from the author's fertility survey conducted in 1987 in Shifang County.; After examining the determinants of fertility change at the macro level, including an assessment of the reasons for the increase in fertility after 1984 in the County, a data set with births as repeated events was created for a multilevel dynamic analysis. Information from both macro and micro levels was combined and analyzed in a multilevel hazard model.; Findings from the study provide evidence that a well managed family planning program can be considered a form of social engineering which is able to promote postponement of marriage, increasing prevalence of contraceptive use, and thus induce fertility decline in the absence of developed socioeconomic conditions. However, changes in the social setting, such as mass education and the diversification of agricultural production, as well as individual characteristics, also have significant effects on fertility. It seems that socioeconomic development has created a context that coincided with the function of the family planning program, and the rural economic reforms do not conflict with population control in Shifang County. Educational attainment was found to play an important role in determining fertility behavior, although its effect was dampened by the development of the family planning program.; In addition, the author argues that the existence of the gap between individual preference for children and the one child policy, as well as the rapid aging process of the Shifang population, require careful consideration in China's family planning program.