Modelling of the global petrochemical industry.

摘要

A model of the global petrochemical industry is presented and used to perform a number of case studies. The model divides the world into a number of regions. Within each region there are available feedstocks, consumer demand, and process technology available for converting feedstocks to products. There is also a transportation network to transfer goods between regions. The objective of the model is to meet global consumer demand at the minimum cost, subject to limitations on capacity and available feedstocks. An alternative modeling scheme, which would allow the regions to have separate objectives in a competitive environment, is explored and found not to yield the desired performance. Several data entry and analysis improvements are made to pre-existing versions of the model.;An exhaustive study is made of the effect of trade levels on the 1977 petrochemical industry. Various levels of acceptable trade are studied, ranging from no trade to highly hazardous trade. End products, (polymers), are considered separately from chemical trade. Ten comparative analyses are made between eight different trade cases. The largest effects are seen to be caused by changes which shift ethylene production routes from one process to another, particularly when the shift is induced by changing demand for the propylene by-product of ethylene production.;Numerous smaller case studies are performed involving the 1982 petrochemical industry. Changes from 1977 to 1982 are examined, as well as a smaller study of trade levels in the 1982 petrochemical industry. A study is made of varying required rates of return of plant investment costs for different regions, and another study examines the effect of abundant, inexpensive Middle Eastern fuels and feedstocks. Several studies are performed on the effects of one region having a proprietary advantage or disadvantage over other regions, including one in which The United States discontinues all production and use of hydrogen cyanide due to safety and environmental concerns. The final study examines some possible effects of unifying Western and Eastern Europe into a single region. Proposals for future model development and improvement are made.