Integrated systems study of petrochemical production and worldwide transportation.

摘要

The petrochemical industry in the last two decades has faced a turbulent environment with drastic changes in feedstock prices, changes in demands and world-wide dynamic competition. A model which considers the effects of the changing economy on the petrochemical industry can be of great value in planning the future, in assessing modifications for this industry, and in evaluating new processes and their effect on the current industry.;It is proposed to construct a model for the world-wide petrochemical industry on a global scale, which will take care of the production and the transportation of this industry. In the world-wide model each regional industry optimizes for the minimum cost of its production, given prices of feedstocks, prices of imports and exports and constraints of supply, demand and capacity. Trade is allowed between the regions and optimal flow of commodities is strived for on the network between the regions.;To solve the model each region was assigned to a processor on a Sequent-Symmetry parallel machine, so the production part was solved at the same time for all the regions. The transportation part needs the production results for all the regions to complete the network optimization. For the latter, a network simplex algorithm has been applied.;An application of the model as a decision support system for a large international company, which is in the petrochemical market, was demonstrated. The model is a planning tool that can be applied to examine strategy and policy of a large industry. The model also simulates the response of the industry to changes that occur in its environment. The adjustment of the regions to new reality and the dynamics of these changes can be studied with the help of this model.;The solution of the model by decomposition enables the user to enter political decisions into the model. Once the production in each region has been established, the decision how to distribute the available supply between the various importers depends on the exporter's policy. With the help of this model, trends and directions of the petrochemical industry can be studied.