Bringing religion into international relations: The effects of providential beliefs on U.S. foreign policy.

摘要

There are strong reasons to believe that religion plays a role in international relations and, specifically, in the choices that international actors make. Although social scientists generally conclude that religious beliefs have a significant impact on world views and choices, we do not fully understand these effects. I am interested in how religion motivates international political behavior.;In this dissertation, I investigate the influence of religion on U.S. foreign policy at the level of the general public and at the level of political elites. In particular, I examine what I call "providential beliefs"---a special category of religious beliefs, the adherents of which believe not only that God has a plan but also that each believer has a role to play in fulfilling the plan. My major hypothesis is that providential believers will be willing to take greater personal and political risks, compared with non-providential believers, in pursuit of what they believe to be God's will.;In order to test this hypothesis, I conduct a survey experiment on a representative national sample and conduct a comparative analysis of the foreign policy choices of three U.S. presidents: Jefferson, McKinley, and Carter. The survey experiment reveals the validity and usefulness of the concept of providential beliefs and demonstrates its ability to change foreign policy preferences. In the presidential case studies, I use both qualitative and quantitative content analysis, in addition to primary and secondary historical documents, in order to establish the nature of each president's religious beliefs and to test my hypotheses about the effects of providential beliefs on foreign policy.;The results of this multi-method analysis suggest that having a providential or a non-providential belief system can strongly influence the foreign policy choices of average citizens and political elites. In particular, the results of the survey experiment indicate that a providential believer will be more likely to support a risky foreign policy if it is framed in religious terms. Similarly, the case study analysis finds that a president who holds providential beliefs will take more risks, both personal and political, in order to further God's will, compared to non-providential presidents.