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Time series analysis of the international co-movements of three stock markets.

机译:三个股票市场国际联动的时间序列分析。

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摘要

Using various time series methods, this paper finds the interrelationships between stock indexes in the major stock markets for the period of January 1978 through December 1986. This study finds that the U.S. stock market is the most influential market in the world.;The degree of interdependence between the major stock markets became more significant when we included the exchange rate factor into local currency return of stock indices. This is evidence that the movement of stock price has negative relationships with the exchange rate, since stock price and exchange rate share deterministic variables.;Finally, we expanded our study to the nonlinear modeling method. While the result of tests for nonlinearity show that significant nonlinearity exists in residuals of the VAR model, empirical evidence from the MARS analysis also supports the existence of interrelationships between stock indexes.;The result of this changing pattern in the interrelationship between the Japanese stock market and the world's major stock exchange was found consistent with both impulse response function and with the OLS from the lagged price-change model. On the other hand, the London market has shown greater independence from other major stock exchange since the break point of December 1, 1982. It has been less influenced by the U.S. stock market.
机译:本文使用各种时间序列方法,找出1978年1月至1986年12月期间主要股票市场中的股票指数之间的相互关系。该研究发现,美国股票市场是世界上最具影响力的市场。当我们将汇率因素纳入股票指数的本币收益时,主要股票市场之间的相互依赖性变得更加重要。这证明股票价格的变动与汇率具有负相关关系,因为股票价格和汇率具有确定性变量。最后,我们将研究扩展到非线性建模方法。虽然非线性测试的结果表明VAR模型的残差中存在明显的非线性,但MARS分析的经验证据也支持股指之间存在相互关系。;这种变化的模式导致了日本股市之间的相互关系并且发现世界主要证券交易所既符合脉冲响应功能,又符合滞后价格变动模型中的OLS。另一方面,自1982年12月1日断点以来,伦敦市场已显示出与其他主要证券交易所的更大独立性。它受到美国股票市场的影响较小。

著录项

  • 作者

    Shin, Pyoungho.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Illinois at Chicago.;

  • 授予单位 University of Illinois at Chicago.;
  • 学科 Economics General.;Economics Finance.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1993
  • 页码 186 p.
  • 总页数 186
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 遥感技术;
  • 关键词

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