Engineering and economic risk assessment for longwall coal mining systems.

摘要

As the longwall mining method enjoys increasing success in a wide variety of coal seams around the world, new operators acquire their first longwall faces at an increasing rate. The large economic investment associated with this acquisition decision, approaching ;Application of the technique to three case-studies yielded several notable conclusions. First and foremost, it is evident that traditional deterministic project valuation techniques may overvalue projects by more than 60%. Further, it was shown that the outcome distributions are asymmetric with a negative-skew. Non-linear impacts were associated with approximately 50 percent of the identified project parameters, accounting for the previously noted negative-skew in the NPV outcome distributions for longwall coal mining projects. Conclusions are also made about risk management for longwall mining projects.