Waiting for public transit: The utility of real-time schedule information.

摘要

This study sought to characterize the impact on traveler perceptions, and transit-use behavior, of real-time transit schedule information, i.e., information that reduces the uncertainty of transit-vehicle arrival time. Conjoint analysis, a methodology for evaluating individual preference or utility, was used to develop preference models to described traveler response to hypothetical travel-choice situations. The conjoint analysis instrument was administered in mail-out format to a target audience of 1500 randomly selected employees on the University of Michigan Medical Campus. Other methods, including a repeated-measures wait duration experiment and observations and surveys at an actual bus stop, were also utilized.; Study results indicate, under the assumptions used, that real-time transit schedule information allows current transit customers to experience a one-third reduction in the cost of waiting relative to the cost when only a printed schedule is available. Moreover, if real-time information also reduces the duration of waits, as the study suggests, then such information will be of even greater value, perhaps even eliminating virtually the entire burden of waiting. Study results further indicate that about two-fifths of the importance weight in the satisfaction of people who have already decided to take the bus is given to arrival-time information. Similarly, about one-fifth of the importance weight in day-to-day mode choice decisions of those who have an alternative to taking the bus is given to information. In contrast, arrival-time information is shown to have little direct effect on customer mode choice when decisions are made on a month-by-month basis.; Transit authorities can use the traveler-preference models developed as tools in transit system design. The research approach also outlines a methodology for pre-deployment analysis of emerging traveler information systems. Moreover, the work has immediate practical application to transit operations because real-time transit schedule information can be provided by technologies currently, or soon to be, available in the transportation market place.