Essays on model uncertainty in monetary policy.

摘要

My dissertation studies policy evaluation in economic environments in which policymakers are faced with different forms of model uncertainty. The first two essays focus on uncertainty about the mechanisms through which oil prices affect economic activity. The first essay provides an analysis of the robustness of different policy rules to this form of uncertainty. The second essay studies the pattern of policymakers' beliefs over the way oil prices affect economic variables, and examines the consequences on monetary policy decisions. The third essay investigates different forms of uncertainty in a Phillips curve model, and evaluates their role in the interpretation of postwar US monetary policy.