Economic growth and foreign trade: Econometric evidence from the People's Republic of China.

摘要

This dissertation studies the sources of growth and the role of foreign trade in the economic growth of People's Republic of China (PRC). The methodology of the dissertation uses two theoretical growth frameworks--neoclassical and structural--and compares the respective finding.;The neoclassical growth framework based on the Solow growth model is used to identify the contribution of technological change to the growth of the economy as a whole and of its industrial sector. Econometric estimation relies on China's interprovince cross section data for the 1987-1990 period. A technical index is developed to measure the effect of technological change. The analysis shows that the growth of total factor productivity (TFP), which is attributable to technology improvement under the neoclassical growth assumptions, does contribute to the economic growth of PRC and its industrial sector.;The sources of growth of PRC are then reexamined within the structural growth framework, which includes certain structural variables to assess the effect of resource reallocation on economic growth. The study specifically focuses on the impact of foreign trade, both exports and imports, on economic growth. Using econometric estimation it has been found that the structural growth model, which includes export and import variables, may explain the PRC economic growth better than the neoclassical growth model. The results of this study also support the hypotheses that exports and imports contribute to economic growth of such a less developed country as the PRC.;In particular, the study shows that manufactured exports and producer goods imports, which are the main components of Chinese exports and imports, have been the key variables responsible for the positive impact of foreign trade on the country's economic growth.