Socioeconomic determinants of fertility in rural China

摘要

Estimates of the socioeconomic determinants of fertility in rural China are presented using micro-data from the 1991 Family Economy and Fertility Survey. Based on economic and other theories of fertility determinants, an empirical model is specified and estimated. By adding into the model interaction effects between region and other independent variables, special attention is paid to different fertility effects of the explanatory variables at different stages of socioeconomic development. The results suggest that regional socioeconomic development, women's age at marriage, and sex preference are important determinants of fertility in rural China. Education, occupation, women's rights in reproductive decisions, family planning, and family structure also have significant effects on fertility. The effect of household income on fertility is positive in less developed rural areas, but levels off with increased socioeconomic development, and even becomes negative in more developed areas. In conclusion, policy implications of the results are discussed.