An econometric study of fats and oils commodities: With special emphasis on world trade.

摘要

Many studies have analyzed the economic dimensions of world fats and oils commodities. In general, they tend to concentrate on one oilseed and its by-products, a few oilseeds and/or their by-products, and several oilseeds and one or more of their by-products, but none of these studies extend to consider all oilseeds and their by-products. While most studies have acknowledged the importance of the interdependencies in the fats and oils complex, they failed to estimate the interrelationships of fats originating from animals and from oils originating from plants and fish.;This study is an attempt to model the interdependencies and interrelationships of oilseeds and their by-products with major animal fats and oils. More specifically, considered butter, lard, and tallow as important components of the world oils and fats complex.;The conceptual model followed the general "market model" approach common to agricultural commodities. The standard partition (fats and oils demand block, oilseed meal demand block, oilseed demand block, fats and oils supply block) of fats and oils commodities were incorporated into the market model. Additionally, a systems approach was utilized to model fats and oils consumption demand. Four demand systems (Rotterdam, CBS, AIDS and NBR) were compared using a non-nested scaler combinations of system. The selected demand system was integrated into the beans/seeds demand system, oilseed meals demand system and fats and oils supply system to create a complete model of the world fats and oils economy. The CBS system outperformed other systems individually and collectively for the U.S. as well as the ROW. Therefore, CBS system was employed to estimated fats and oils consumption demand.;Three altenrative policy scenarios were analyzed. The effects of alternative policy scenarios on U.S. oilseed production, crush demand, fats and oils production, consumption, imports, exports, stocks and prices were discussed. The model showed satisfactory performance for soybean and corn policy scenarios. The failure to capture policy impacts due to butter support price change stems from the government involvement in the price determination of butter over the past 30 years. The model failed to capture competitive nature of butter with other fats and oils.