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Reappraisal of the convergence hypothesis from the perspective of endogenous growth theory.

机译:从内生增长理论的角度重新评估收敛假说。

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摘要

Whether world income levels converge or diverge, and what the long term sources of economic growth have been, remain the most important and controversial issues in economic growth. To these issues, traditional neoclassical growth theory and new endogenous growth theory have provided contradictory explanations. The conflict centers on the question of convergence.;This study reinvestigates the convergence hypothesis using improved LSDV-fixed-effect analyses including five endogenous growth variables, extended sets of data in pooled time-series, more careful designs of nonlinear/cyclical patterns inside each data set, and critical analyses of data measurements.;No evidence is found for conditional convergence when tested using five endogenous growth variables for conditioning, when tested in different subsample sizes, when tested in different subsample periods, and when tested using growth rates instead of levels. The seemingly-appropriate evidence for conditional convergence appears to result from model misspecification and two measurement artifacts, 'downward-sloping-bias' and 'nonstationarity' associated with the use of level forms for control variables. On the other hand, the evidence for 'divergence' is strong and robust in all respects.;This study therefore concludes that endogenous growth theory is the theory that is most consistent with the observed pattern of economic growth. World income levels diverge as predicted by endogenous growth theory. The long term source of economic growth is technological innovation embedded in five major endogenous growth factors, physical capital with R&D effects, human capital with knowledge spillover effects, trade liberalization with learning-by-doing effects, industrialization with big-push effects, and urbanization with agglomeration effects.
机译:世界收入水平是趋同还是分歧,以及经济增长的长期来源是什么,仍然是经济增长中最重要和最有争议的问题。对于这些问题,传统的新古典增长理论和新的内生增长理论提供了矛盾的解释。冲突集中在收敛问题上。本研究使用改进的LSDV固定效应分析(包括五个内生增长变量,合并的时间序列中的扩展数据集,每个模型中更仔细的非线性/循环模式设计)重新研究了收敛假设。数据集和数据测量的关键分析。当使用五个内生生长变量进行调节,以不同子样本大小进行测试,以不同子样本周期进行测试以及使用增长率代替测试时,没有发现条件收敛的证据水平。条件收敛的看似适当的证据似乎是由于模型错误指定以及两个测量伪影(与控制变量使用水平形式相关的“向下倾斜偏向”和“非平稳性”)导致的。另一方面,“分歧”的证据在各个方面都是强有力的。;因此,本研究得出的结论是,内生增长理论是与观察到的经济增长模式最一致的理论。内生增长理论预测,世界收入水平存在差异。经济增长的长期来源是嵌入五个主要内生增长因素中的技术创新,具有研发效应的物质资本,具有知识溢出效应的人力资本,具有边做边学效应的贸易自由化,具有大推动力的工业化以及城市化附聚效果。

著录项

  • 作者

    Kim, Yeong Seok.;

  • 作者单位

    The University of Texas at Dallas.;

  • 授予单位 The University of Texas at Dallas.;
  • 学科 Economics Theory.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1997
  • 页码 122 p.
  • 总页数 122
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 康复医学;
  • 关键词

  • 入库时间 2022-08-17 11:49:07

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