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Climate change and variability in a single column coupled sea ice/ocean mixed-layer model.

机译:单列海冰/海洋混合层耦合模型中的气候变化和变异性。

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In general circulation model experiments, the Arctic region shows an amplified response to global warming scenarios. In the real climate system, the detection of high latitude climate change is likely to be obscured by the natural variability which is present in the system. Both the feedback mechanisms which contribute to the enhanced Arctic response and the natural variability which occurs in the Arctic climate system are poorly understood. Due to large uncertainties in many of the parameters used to model sea ice, models with significantly different physical processes can be tuned to obtain realistic present day simulations. However, in studies of climate change, it is the response of the model to various perturbations which is important. This response can be significantly different in sea ice models which exclude various physical processes. This study addresses the simulation of climate change and variability with the use of a new coupled sea ice/ocean mixed layer model which includes relatively sophisticated thermodynamics and an ice thickness distribution.; The model performance is evaluated and the importance of various processes is assessed. Several climate applications of this model are considered. These include studies of ice/ocean/atmosphere exchange, the simulated Arctic response to high frequency forcing, the strength and interactions of thermodynamic feedback mechanisms, and the natural climate variability of the perennial Arctic ice pack. It is found that the ice thickness distribution is a crucial component for accurately simulating ice/ocean/atmosphere exchange, the ice mass balance, feedback mechanisms, and the general Arctic climate.; The presence of the ice thickness distribution and an interactive ocean mixed layer allows for the relatively accurate representation of ocean feedback processes. These feedback mechanisms provide an enhancement in the model response to heat flux perturbations which is similar in size to that provided by the ice/albedo feedback. The incorporation of both ice/albedo and ice/ocean feedback mechanisms is important for determining the climate change and variability of the Arctic system. Additionally, the natural variability in the ice dynamical forcing causes a majority of the variance in the ice average thickness for specific locations. Based on the results of these studies, it is recommended that future modeling of Arctic and global climate include an interactive ocean mixed layer, sub-gridscale ice thickness distribution, and explicit ice dynamics.
机译:在一般的循环模型实验中,北极地区显示出对全球变暖情景的放大反应。在实际的气候系统中,高纬度气候变化的检测很可能会被系统中存在的自然变异性所遮盖。对于增强北极响应的反馈机制和在北极气候系统中发生的自然变异性都知之甚少。由于用于建模海冰的许多参数存在很大的不确定性,因此可以对物理过程明显不同的模型进行调整,以获得现实的当今模拟。但是,在气候变化研究中,重要的是模型对各种扰动的响应。在排除各种物理过程的海冰模型中,此响应可能会显着不同。这项研究利用新的耦合的海冰/海洋混合层模型解决了气候变化和多变性的模拟问题,该模型包括相对复杂的热力学和冰厚度分布。评估模型性能并评估各种过程的重要性。考虑了该模型的几种气候应用。这些研究包括冰/海洋/大气交换,模拟的北极对高频强迫的响应,热力学反馈机制的强度和相互作用以及多年生北极冰袋的自然气候变异性。发现冰的厚度分布是精确模拟冰/海洋/大气交换,冰质量平衡,反馈机制和总体北极气候的关键组成部分。冰厚度分布和交互式海洋混合层的存在允许相对准确地表示海洋反馈过程。这些反馈机制增强了模型对热通量扰动的响应,其大小与冰/反照率反馈提供的大小相似。冰/反照率和冰/海洋反馈机制的结合对于确定气候变化和北极系统的变异性很重要。另外,在冰动力强迫中的自然变化会导致特定位置冰平均厚度的大部分变化。根据这些研究的结果,建议未来对北极和全球气候的建模应包括交互式海洋混合层,亚栅格尺度的冰厚度分布以及明确的冰动力学。

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