Bottom-up simulation for evaluation of recreational boat traffic monitoring.

摘要

Florida's population growth, coupled with technological changes that make boating affordable to the majority of the population and ample wealth and time for residents and tourists to have a high demand for recreational activities, have led to an explosion in Florida's recreational boat traffic. Management of this unprecedented level of boat traffic requires knowledge of the state of the traffic system, which usually comes through a monitoring effort.;Little information is currently available for comparison of monitoring efforts, as most monitoring efforts are conducted for specific local management needs. Computer simulation is potentially an ideal tool for evaluation of monitoring strategies as it allows for unlimited repetition and is considerably cheaper than live monitoring efforts. Recreational boat traffic is a highly complex and variable form of traffic and has in the past defied attempts at modeling through traditional methods.;Bottom-up, or agent-based simulations show promise in capturing traffic systems' diversity and complex nature. By modeling boat traffic at the individual boater's level, highly variable traffic patterns are created within a digital landscape created within a geographic information system (GIS) framework. Simulated traffic patterns allow for discussion and comparison of selected boat traffic monitoring strategies. Behavioral information from a telephone survey is combined with a field survey of boats and boating facilities to recreate individual boaters' behaviors, including departure frequencies and preferred destinations. This information is extrapolated onto the known population of boats moored in Sarasota Bay from a recent census. Individual boaters' itineraries are generated, and the aggregate behavior of the individual trips is taken as representative of the boat traffic. A least-cost path routine from a raster-based GIS approximates the paths that boats take.;Simulated output gives complex, but not random, patterns of boat traffic, with some obvious concentration in access areas. A combination of monitoring in access areas such as passes and channels, with information about densities of boating behaviors in other parts of the bay, is sufficient boat traffic information for many management goals, such as location of services.