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An analysis of a non-linear demand system: Bayesian estimation method

机译:非线性需求系统分析:贝叶斯估计方法

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摘要

The Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS), become the most popular model in applied demand analysis. The popularity of the AIDS model can be explained by two main reasons. First, it satisfies almost all desirable properties. That is, it gives an arbitrarily approximate to any demand system; it satisfies the axioms of choices exactly; it aggregates perfectly over consumers without invoking parallel linear Engel curves; its functional form is consistent with known household-budget data; and it easily allows testing of the standard restrictions of classical demand theory. Second, the AIDS is apparently easy to estimate because it is, in general, approximated to a linear system (LAIDS). The reason for this linearization, which typically uses the Stone price index, is to avoid difficulties involved in the estimation process of the AIDS model, which is a nonlinear system.;The true link between the translog price index and the Stone price index was established. This allows us to analytically evaluate the conditions under which it is adequate to approximate the AIDS model with the LAIDS model. We found that conditions that allow the linearization of the AIDS model impose serious restrictions on the form of the original model specification. Thus, it is not appropriate to use the Stone price index to approximate the AIDS model with the LAIDS model.;For an alternative to the commonly used estimation method for the AIDS, this thesis had proposed a Bayesian approach to directly evaluate the AIDS model without compromising model specification. Our results suggest that it is more advantageous to use the Bayesian method than the classical iterative methods. Using meat consumption data, two cases of AIDS model specification were studied: first the AIDS model was evaluated when preferences are assumed constant over time, and second, we analyze the AIDS model when possibility for structural changes in preferences is assumed. Our results suggest that it may be inappropriate to use aggregated meat data for demand analysis.
机译:几乎理想的需求系统(AIDS)成为应用需求分析中最受欢迎的模型。艾滋病模型的流行可以由两个主要原因解释。首先,它满足几乎所有期望的性能。也就是说,它可以任意近似于任何需求系统。它完全满足选择的公理;它可以完美地覆盖整个消费者,而无需调用平行的线性恩格尔曲线;其功能形式与已知的家庭预算数据一致;并且可以轻松测试经典需求理论的标准限制。第二,艾滋病显然很容易估计,因为它通常近似于线性系统(LAIDS)。之所以进行线性化(通常使用Stone价格指数)是为了避免在AIDS模型(一个非线性系统)的估计过程中遇到困难。;确定了对数价格指数与Stone价格指数之间的真正联系。这使我们能够分析评估在什么条件下可以用LAIDS模型近似AIDS模型。我们发现,允许AIDS模型线性化的条件对原始模型规格的形式施加了严格的限制。因此,不适合使用斯通价格指数来将艾滋病模型与LAIDS模型进行近似。;为替代常用的AIDS估计方法,本文提出了一种贝叶斯方法直接评估AIDS模型而无需损害模型规格。我们的结果表明,使用贝叶斯方法比经典的迭代方法更有利。使用肉类消费数据,研究了两种情况下的AIDS模型规范:第一,在假设偏好随时间变化不变的情况下评估AIDS模型,第二,在假设偏好结构发生变化的可能性时,分析AIDS模型。我们的结果表明,使用汇总的肉类数据进行需求分析可能是不合适的。

著录项

  • 作者

    Yague, Ibrahima.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Georgia.;

  • 授予单位 University of Georgia.;
  • 学科 Agricultural economics.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 1998
  • 页码 98 p.
  • 总页数 98
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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