The value of perfect information in power system planning problems.

摘要

The goals of this dissertation are to investigate power system planning problems under uncertainty regarding both the yearly demand growth and the hourly pattern and explore the impacts of these uncertainties on costs. Unlike the traditional approach, all of the Long term, Mid term, and Short term planning are considered simultaneously.; The first part of the dissertation proposes a model used to maximize the present value of expected total profits for the utility over 20 years under the constraints of rate of return and reserve margin regulation. That is, assume the utility is a regulated monopoly.; The second part of the dissertation develops a model used to minimize the present value of expected total costs for the utility over 20 years under the constraints of demand and reserve margin, following the current trend of competition in the generation sector.; The third part of the dissertation borrows the HPP concept from the general production planning field to construct a heuristic with excellent performance to overcome the problem of dimensionality.