Agribusiness strategic planning under risk.

摘要

Strategic planning for agribusiness has become increasingly important in the swiftly changing economic environment of agriculture. Agribusinesses that can anticipate and correctly respond to changes in the economic environment can improve their chances for success. However, the risk faced by agribusinesses has likely increased because of the changing needs of the clientele and the uncertainty in volume associated with increased planting flexibility in the 1996 FAIR act. Agribusinesses that can explore various strategic alternatives can position themselves to increase or maintain profits and reduce risk exposure while meeting the ever-changing needs of its clientele.;The objective of this research was to quantify the probabilistic economic and financial outcomes of alternative strategic actions for an agribusiness operating in a risky economic environment, in a manner useful to management. To meet the objective a model capable of simulating the financial activity of a diverse agribusiness firm under risk was developed. By meeting the objective, the decision-makers were provided with a source of information for estimating the risks involved in the business. Alternatives for reducing the likelihood of adverse risks, transferring risk to other parties, and/or building capacity to bear risks were also examined. The decision-makers were able to use the new information in conjunction with the level of risk they were willing to carry in making decisions among the alternatives.;A multi-division cooperative was used as the case study to validate the model's ability to reasonably reflect the economic activity of an agribusiness. Results from the analysis were presented to the management. Management then defined two alternative strategic actions to be analyzed. The alternative strategic actions were presented to the board of directors to aid in the decision-making process. Results indicated that the board, by their questions, obviously related to the risk management context of the presentation.;The hypothesis of the research suggested that there was little value in a strategic management risk analysis tool for small to medium size agribusinesses. There was evidence to reject this hypothesis based on the results of the research, discussions with the board of directors, and a letter written by the general manager.