Efficient air pollution regulation of coal-fired power in China.

摘要

This dissertation evaluates monetary external costs of electricity generation in the People's Republic of China and implications for efficient pollution control policy. It presents an integrated assessment of environmental damages of air emissions of a representative new coal-fired plant in urban areas of north and south China. The simulation evaluates the nature and magnitude of damages in China, transboundary effects in Japan and Korea, and global greenhouse gas warming impacts. The valuation is used to identify efficient abatement policy for Chinese plants over time; evaluate benefits of differentiated policies; and consider the importance of dynamic policy.; Potential annual damages of operating a 600-MW power plant without controls in China today would be {dollar}43--{dollar}45 million (U.S. 1995{dollar}). Annual local damages of {dollar}37-{dollar}40 million far exceed transboundary or greenhouse gas damages ({dollar}1.4 million and {dollar}4.6 million respectively). The largest component of damages is the risk of human mortality and chronic morbidity from long-term exposure to fine particles.; Efficient pollution control minimizes the sum of abatement costs and residual unabated damages. Because monetary damages reflect sufferers' willingness to pay to avoid environmental risks, the choice of efficient controls is fundamentally tied to societal values and preferences. The optimal path for Chinese abatement moves from modest dispersion measures at present to combined dispersion and emission controls approaching those of current-day United States, by 2050. The inclusion of transboundary and greenhouse damages does not substantively alter local policies. Welfare benefits are gained by differentiating abatement policy by pollutant, meteorological parameters, and by population density.; An analysis of optimal one-time investment in abatement for a plant in a growing economy suggests that some investment is optimal at all incomes but no single level of abatement is suitable for all economies. Forward-looking policy anticipates higher future values for environmental services and provides distinct welfare advantages over time compared to myopic or static policies--such as the imposition of developed country standards--especially if aggregate capacity growth is considered.