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Stochastic Weather Generation with Approximate Bayesian Computation.

机译:具有近似贝叶斯计算的随机天气生成。

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摘要

Stochastic weather generators (SWGs) are designed to create simulations of synthetic weather data and are frequently used as input into physical models throughout many scientific disciplines. While the field of SWGs is vast, the search for better methods of spatiotemporal simulation of meteorological variables persists. We propose techniques to estimate SWG parameters based on an emerging set of methods called Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC), which bypass the evaluation of a likelihood function. In this thesis, we begin with a review of the current state of ABC methods, including their advantages, drawbacks, and variations, and then apply ABC to the simulation of daily local maximum temperature, daily local precipitation occurrence, and daily precipitation occurrence over a spatial domain.;For temperature, we model the mean and variance as following a sinusoidal pattern which depends on the previous day. A similar approach is used for precipitation, but instead use a probit regression to model the probability that it rains on a given day of the year, based on an oscillatory mean function. For spatiotemporal precipitation occurrence, we employ a thresholded Gaussian process which reduces to our methods for local occurrence. In each scenario, we identify appropriate ABC penalization criteria to produce simulations whose statistical characteristics closely resemble those of the data. For our numerical case studies, we use daily temperature and precipitation records Colorado and Iowa, collected over the course of hundreds of years.
机译:随机气象发生器(SWG)旨在创建合成气象数据的模拟,并经常在许多科学学科中用作物理模型的输入。尽管SWG的领域广阔,但仍在寻找更好的气象变量时空模拟方法。我们提出了一种基于称为近似贝叶斯计算(ABC)的新兴方法来估算SWG参数的技术,该方法绕过了似然函数的评估。在本文中,我们首先回顾了ABC方法的现状,包括它们的优点,缺点和变化,然后将ABC应用于模拟每天最高温度,每天局部降水发生和每天降水发生的过程。对于温度,我们对均值和方差建模为遵循前一天的正弦曲线模式。一种类似的方法用于降水,但基于振荡平均函数,而是使用概率回归来模拟在一年中给定日期下雨的概率。对于时空降水的发生,我们采用阈值高斯过程,该过程简化为我们的局部发生方法。在每种情况下,我们都确定适当的ABC惩罚标准以产生模拟,其统计特征与数据的统计特征极为相似。对于我们的数值案例研究,我们使用数百年来收集的每日温度和降水记录科罗拉多州和爱荷华州。

著录项

  • 作者

    Olson, Branden.;

  • 作者单位

    University of Colorado at Boulder.;

  • 授予单位 University of Colorado at Boulder.;
  • 学科 Statistics.;Applied mathematics.;Hydrologic sciences.
  • 学位 M.S.
  • 年度 2016
  • 页码 145 p.
  • 总页数 145
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类
  • 关键词

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