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ANALYSTS' ANNUAL EARNINGS FORECAST REVISIONS AROUND INTERIM EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS (FINANCIAL ANALYSTS).

机译:围绕中期收益公告的分析师年度收益预测修订(财务分析)。

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摘要

This study examines, both analytically and empirically, how the properties of interim earnings affect analysts' annual earnings forecast revisions around interim earnings announcements. My rational expectations model of analysts' forecast revisions allows analysts to acquire private information in both the pre-announcement and announcement periods. In each period, the properties of the private information are determined by the property of the public information it will be used to interpret. The model predicts the following: (1) Analysts' average forecast revisions are positively associated with both the surprise and precision of interim earnings. The associations are stronger the earlier the announcements are in the year. (2) The change in analysts' forecast dispersion is positively associated with the interim earnings surprise and pre-announcement information precision and negatively associated with interim earnings precision. (3) Analysts' forecast jumbling is positively associated with the surprise and precision of interim earnings and negatively associated with pre-announcement information precision. Using I/B/E/S analysts' earnings forecast data and the pooled OLS linear regression method, I find the empirical evidence that is consistent with the predictions about analysts' average forecast revisions and the change in forecast dispersion. However, the empirical evidence does not reject the null hypothesis about analysts' forecast jumbling.
机译:这项研究从分析和经验两个方面考察了中期收益的性质如何影响围绕中期收益公告的分析师的年度收益预测修订。我对分析师预测修订的理性预期模型使分析师可以在公告前和公告期获取私人信息。在每个时期,私人信息的属性都取决于将用于解释的公共信息的属性。该模型预测了以下内容:(1)分析师的平均预测修订与中期收益的惊喜和准确性均呈正相关。协会在今年早些时候宣布的越强大。 (2)分析师的预测离散度的变化与中期收益意外和公告前信息的准确性呈正相关,与中期收益准确性呈负相关。 (3)分析师的预测波动与中期收益的意外性和准确性呈正相关,与公告前信息的准确性呈负相关。使用I / B / E / S分析师的收入预测数据和汇总的OLS线性回归方法,我发现了与关于分析师平均预测修订和预测离散度变化的预测一致的经验证据。但是,经验证据并不能拒绝有关分析师预测波动的零假设。

著录项

  • 作者

    SONG, XIAOFEI.;

  • 作者单位

    CITY UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK.;

  • 授予单位 CITY UNIVERSITY OF NEW YORK.;
  • 学科 Business Administration Accounting.
  • 学位 PH.D.
  • 年度 1999
  • 页码 108 p.
  • 总页数 108
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 财务管理、经济核算;
  • 关键词

  • 入库时间 2022-08-17 11:48:12

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