Political will and the prevention of violent ethnic conflict and genocide: A regional intervention model for the international community .

摘要

This dissertation describes the problem of violent ethnic conflict and genocide. The 20th century was marked by the deaths of over 100 million people in armed conflicts and another 170 million more in intrastate political violence. Terrorist attacks and responses to them and state-sponsored genocides, characterize the violence of the 21 st century. Effective prevention measures require a coherent multi-track approach utilizing early warning and quick response mechanisms. Case studies of genocide (Holocaust, Cambodia, and Rwanda) assist in explaining why the lack of international will precludes genocide prevention. The research uses the Louise Diamond and John McDonald (1996) Multi-Track Diplomacy model (tracks 1-9) to address this complex problem. Surveys and interviews were administered to 102 respondents from all tracks and explored their wisdom on: (1) Why the international community seems to lack the political will to prevent or even stop genocide; (2) What the components of an appropriate international mechanism for preventing or stopping violent ethnic conflict or genocide might be; and (3) How international political will could be increased to prevent or stop genocide. The findings reveal respondents' viewpoints and incorporate their knowledge, experiences, and suggestions for conflict prevention strategies to form an integrative model that combines institutions and mechanisms from track 1 (government actors) with tracks 2-9 (nongovernmental or community actors) necessary to prevent genocide. Research findings include: (1) appropriate measures should be taken to prevent genocide using the Genocide Convention (i.e., Rwanda and Sudan); (2) acceptable legal and regional organizations (i.e., international [United Nations] or regional [NATO and African Union]) should provide legitimacy for the use of force; (3) an immediate response (i.e., Kosovo aerial bombing) should be used; (4) a US-led coalition of forces (i.e., in Iraq) would be inappropriate; (5) US forces should be limited to support roles (i.e., logistics, training, and intelligence) or aerial bombing (e.g., in Kosovo) to create safe havens; and (6) multi-track nongovernmental organizations (i.e., medical, religious, educational, scientific, business, media) should combine with track 1 military and diplomatic elements to prevent genocide. The understanding, acceptance and broad application of these research findings are the foundation for a likely, highly successful model of response and resultant strategies for future violent conflict and genocide prevention.