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Nonparametric estimation of first passage time distributions in flowgraph models.

机译:流程图模型中首次通过时间分布的非参数估计。

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摘要

Statistical flowgraphs represent multistate semi-Markov processes using integral transforms of transition time distributions between adjacent states; these are combined algebraically and inverted to derive parametric estimates for first passage time distributions between nonadjacent states. This dissertation extends previous work in the field by developing estimation methods for flowgraphs using empirical transforms based on sample data, with no assumption of specific parametric probability models for transition times. We prove strong convergence of empirical flowgraph results to the exact parametric results; develop alternatives for numerical inversion of empirical transforms and compare them in terms of computational complexity, accuracy, and ability to determine error bounds; discuss (with examples) the difficulties of determining confidence bands for distribution estimates obtained in this way; develop confidence intervals for moment-based quantities such as the mean; and show how methods based on empirical transforms can be modified to accommodate censored data. Several applications of the nonparametric method, based on reliability and survival data, are presented in detail.
机译:统计流程图代表使用相邻状态之间的过渡时间分布的积分变换的多状态半马尔可夫过程;这些被代数地组合并取反以得出不相邻状态之间的第一通过时间分布的参数估计。本文通过基于样本数据的经验变换开发流程图估计方法,从而扩展了该领域的先前工作,而无需假设过渡时间的特定参数概率模型。我们证明了经验流程图结果与精确的参数结果之间的强收敛性。为经验变换的数值反演开发替代方案,并根据计算复杂性,准确性和确定误差范围的能力对它们进行比较; (通过实例)讨论确定以此方式获得的分配估计值的置信带的困难;为基于矩的量(例如平均值)建立置信区间;并说明如何修改基于经验变换的方法以适应审查数据。详细介绍了基于可靠性和生存数据的非参数方法的几种应用。

著录项

  • 作者

    Collins, David H.;

  • 作者单位

    The University of New Mexico.;

  • 授予单位 The University of New Mexico.;
  • 学科 Statistics.
  • 学位 Ph.D.
  • 年度 2009
  • 页码 214 p.
  • 总页数 214
  • 原文格式 PDF
  • 正文语种 eng
  • 中图分类 统计学;
  • 关键词

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