Escaping carbon lock-in.

摘要

The issue of climate change, induced by anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions, is major policy concern for nations, international organizations and global society in general. The environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis, when applied to carbon dioxide emissions, implies that increasing economic growth may lead to lower national emissions after a characteristic income level is passed. The research here indicates that this hypothesis does not hold for carbon dioxide emissions. While a transition to decreasing emissions was identified in a subset of technologically advanced countries, it correlated with the, political and economic changes that followed the oil crises of the 1970s. When evaluated from a technological and institutional perspective, the climate problem can be viewed as a result of carbon lock-in. Reframing the issue in this way allows the development of policies that address the process of technological and institutional change in a coherent manner. Climate change mitigation would be beneficially attacked with "policy packages" that develop "nurse" markets for development of carbon-free technologies.