Forecasting the malting barley premium in North Dakota.

摘要

North Dakota is the largest malting barley producing state in the United States. The malting barley premium, which is the price difference between malting and feed barley, greatly affects the planting and storage decisions of North Dakota farmers and elevators. In this paper, three models are developed to forecast the malting barley premium.;The first model, the supply model, is based on estimated production of malting and feed barley. The second model, the supply with quality model, is based on estimated production of malting barley and three critical quality factors-test weight, protein content, and moisture. The third model, the supply with weather model, is based on estimated production of malting and feed barley, and three weather factors---monthly temperature in July, monthly temperature in August, and subsoil moisture in July. Of the three models, the supply with weather model has the best performance.