Mediated modeling: A collaborative approach for the development of shared understanding and evaluation of environmental policy scenarios, with case studies in the Fox River Basin, Wisconsin and the Ria Formosa, Portugal.

摘要

Mediated modeling is a method to interactively involve a broad range of stakeholders in a team learning exercise using facilitated group modeling. The stakeholders collaboratively design, construct, and run a “scoping” level computer model with the assistance of a facilitator/modeler. The mediated modeling process serves several functions, including: (1) building consensus among stakeholder groups about the structure of a complex regional ecological economic system and its dynamics; (2) providing a strategic and systematic foundation for investigating policy, research or management alternatives; and (3) serving as a tool for disseminating the insights gained by the participating group members.; The resulting model can be used to explore the complexity of the system's dynamics and to simulate some of the scenario's the group has developed. The software (STELLA) is sufficiently user-friendly that most participants can themselves present the resulting model to broader audiences once the model is constructed.; In this dissertation the technique of mediated modeling was developed and tested, and applied in two case studies at the regional landscape scale. The two case studies were: (1) the Upper Fox River Basin, Wisconsin, USA; and (2) the Ria Formosa Coastal Wetland, Portugal. Several policy scenarios were ultimately run using the models. The models in both cases focussed on the links between land use decisions and their effects on ecosystem services. For example, in the Upper Fox case pollution due to sediment run was a more significant problem than the phosphorus run off. The Ria Formosa model showed that dredging as the general solution to pollution in this coastal wetland was overrated.; The participants in the case studies were interviewed before and after the mediated modeling process. Evaluation of the questionnaires revealed that the mediated modeling exercise: (1) was a learning experience about integration and inter-temporal aspects of the system; (2) allowed broad stakeholder participation (although a prerequisite for the participants seems to be anchorage of the project in existing decision making structures); and (3) created a positive attitude towards mediated modeling as a policy and management aid and decision support tool.