Life cycle cost analysis of aging aircraft airframe maintenance.

摘要

Scope and method of study. The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between an aircraft's age and its annual airframe maintenance costs. Common life cycle costing methodology has previously not recognized the existence of this cost growth potential, and has therefor not determined the magnitude nor significance of this cost element. This study analyzed twenty-five years of DOT Form 41-airframe maintenance cost data for the Boeing 727, 737, 747 and McDonnell Douglas DC9 and DC-10 aircraft. Statistical analysis included regression analysis, Pearson's r, and t-tests to test the null hypothesis.; Findings and conclusion. Airframe maintenance cost growth was confirmed to be increasing after an aircraft's age exceeded its designed service objective of approximately twenty-years. Annual airframe maintenance cost growth increases were measured ranging from 3.5% annually for a DC-9, to approximately 9% annually for a DC-10 aircraft. Average measured coefficient of determination between age and airframe maintenance, exceeded .80, confirming a strong relationship between cost: and age. The statistical significance of the difference between airframe costs sampled in 1985, compared to airframe costs sampled in 1998 was confirmed by t-tests performed on each subject aircraft group. Future cost forecasts involving aging aircraft subjects must address cost growth due to aging when attempting to model an aircraft's economic service life.