How oil prices impact the labor market: Empirical evidence from Alaska.

摘要

The present paper uses a linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach in order to test for symmetric effects of oil price changes on employment in the oil-industry and employment in non-oil industries in Alaska. The ARDL model allows for the examination of short and long-run effects of employment by changes in crude oil prices, interest rate and personal income. Using quarterly data over the period 1987-2015, the long run results show strong positive correlation of crude oil prices and oil-industry employment and negative correlation between crude oil prices and employment in the non-oil industry in Alaska, supporting the sectoral shift hypothesis. Furthermore, interest rates significantly impact employment in both economic sectors, in the short and in the long run. While a higher interest rate leads to job creation in the oil-industry, it causes job destruction in the non-oil industry.