A system-of-systems approach to participatory water infrastructure decisions.

摘要

Water management worldwide is evolving towards integrating social, economic and environmental variables into the decision-making processes to increase the efficiency and sustainability of a decision's outcomes. This study aims to develop a system-of-systems decision support framework and a methodology to aid in efficient participatory decision-making regarding water infrastructure alternatives that allows for insight into stakeholders involved in the decision-making process. Southern and Central California residents and the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta served as the case study for this thesis. In order to gather data regarding stakeholder beliefs and perceptions, a web-based survey was deployed throughout Southern and Central California that included questions considering new water infrastructure projects and respondent demographics. After modeling the water system as a system-of-systems for problem delineation, a binary probit model was used to gain insight and quantify the effect of peoples' characteristics on the likelihood that they: (1) perceive or do not perceive there to be a need for new water infrastructure, and (2) support or oppose new water infrastructure. The characteristics identified in the binary probit model were further analyzed using qualitative methods to identify project criteria that increased the likelihood of actively opposing or supporting new water infrastructure projects. Also included in the web-based survey were pair-wise comparisons of criteria that were used as input in an analytical hierarchy process. The analytical hierarchy process analysis then was used to measure the relative impact of different water infrastructure alternatives on the stakeholder groups. This approach helped to deduce which alternative, from a selection of alternatives, is ideal for each stakeholder group, and therefore the alternative that each stakeholder group is most likely to support. This insight into the stakeholders involved in the decision-making process may be used to foster conversation and further understand the various points of views of different stakeholder groups and individuals. This may expedite the decision-making process, allowing for an implementable and sustainable alternative with minimal public opposition.